C Raja Mohan, the resident foreign policy expert of Indian Express, in an op-ed article in today’s Indian Express, repeats homilies on Iran and Middle East, displaying the trade mark ignorance of Middle East, so typical of intelligentsia in India. He says that coming Iran-US nuclear deal will help India in engaging with Iran. He also says that India needs to work with Iran to secure its own interests in Afghanistan, and to better secure oil supplies from Middle East. He says that it is hoped that post the deal, oil prices may drop to $20 a barrel.
The facts are as under instead:
1. The deal will totally unravel Middle East. Saudi Arabia will immediately order nukes from Pakistan to counter Iranian nukes. A new arms race will begin. Pakistan will get lots of money from Saudi Arabia for the nukes it will deliver, and will feel emboldened to ratchet up terror against India.
2. It is very likely that a war will break out between Iran and Israel post deal, with consequences that can’t even be imagined now. That will totally disrupt oil export out of the region.
3. US will have facilitated proliferation like it did in case of Pakistan and North Korea, making the world more unsafe.
4. With nukes in the basement and sanctions gone, for India, Iran will become a difficult country to deal with. It may even feel that India is no longer of no use to it.
C Raja Mohan’s article only reemphasises the fact that Indian ruling elite knows nothing of the character of the countries in the Middle East, their world-view, and their goal about the world.